At Plumpton the New Bumper Betting Plan Falls at the First Hurdle (so to speak)

I had intended to spend today ironing, cleaning, cooking and catching up on the final episode of Deutschland 83, oh and finishing season 5 of the Good Wife.
That was until I bought my Racing Post from the Co-Op to find that Arkle Chase 3rd favourite was running at Plumpton. Pretty quickly the iron was turned off and the recipe book back on the shelf, and I was off to Brighton Station to catch the coach to my favourite local course.
It was an interesting move by trainer Gary Moore to run his two mile novice chaser at Plumpton with just 4 weeks to the festival. As far as I could gather it was to find out whether Ar Mad could actually run anti-clockwise. Strange as it may seem horses are right/left handed in the same way - although not necessarily in the same proportions - as humans. Some prefer running right handed, and some prefer running left handed. With Ar Mad it has been obvious he prefers running clockwise. The performances which have led to him being high in the betting for the novice 2 mile championship have been at right handed tracks. When he ran left handed he was disappointing.
In the paddock Ar Mad looked great.

His two opponents in The Novices Limited Handicap Chase were substantially inferior to him on all known form, and that is basically how the race turned out. Joshua Moore sent his mount off in front, he was 20 lengths up by the first fence, and it stayed that way till the end. Ar Mad won easily. It was effectively a schooling round, for which he received a £5k first prize. Plus also - and this may have been another factor as to why the shrewd trainer ran him here - the chance to go for a £50k bonus by winning this race and a race at the Cheltenham Festival. This is part of a commendable scheme, sponsored by SIS (the racing TV people), to encourage trainers and owners to run good horses at gaffs such as Plumpton.
My verdict, for what it is worth (see later to understand this may not be worth much in tipping terms), is that Ar Mad deserves to take his chance in the Arkle at Cheltenham. I cannot though see him winning. Today he still jumped right at most of the fences. If he is taken on for the lead by quality horses I can see this tendency becoming more exaggerated. In short if the Cheltenham Festival were run at Sandown or Kempton (hopefully you know what I mean) then I would make him as low as 2/1 to win it. Sadly though, as the name suggests, it is run at Cheltenham and I would not want to back him at any price less than 20/1.
By way of a bonus this unexpected trip to the races gave me the chance to test out my new theory on how to make money betting on bumpers. Before the race I had assessed it all carefully. The one horse with any form - Lord Bryan - did not look all that and could be dismissed. I had a sneaky feeling for Mickieblueeyes, trained by Di Grissell. I have always had a soft spot for this trainer, for both sentimental and practical reasons. She has a lot of winners in point to points and trains not that far away in deepest East Sussex countryside near Hastings. The operation used to run by her husband, Gardie, a real character who once very nearly had the winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Royal Stag, owned by Lady Harmsworth-Blunt (of Daily Mail fame). He came agonisingly close to winning me a considerable sum when second in the 1989 running at odds of 66/1. Gardie also used to employ the legendary iron man* jockey Ray Goldstein with considerable effect at Plumpton, Fontwell and the now sadly closed Folkestone.
I also thought Richard Rowe's Remember Forever would be worth a look, having been bought for a considerable sum after finishing second in an Irish point to point.
Looking at the betting before the race I was torn. The only money - see my theory - was for an unraced horse trained by Harry Whittingham. Trouble was his well-fancied runner earlier in the day had run appallingly.
It therefore came down to a straight choice between the Grissell and Rowe horses. Remembering that towards the end of his time as a jockey Richard Rowe 'never gave up the outside to anyone', and with the advice that as a trainer he 'could not train ivy up a tree' ringing in my ears, I was leaning towards the Grissell gelding.
But the money, such as it was, was for Rowe's Remember Forever; 16/1 in places, into 14's and then 12's.
As for Grissell's Mickieblueeyes, it was drifting like a barge. Opened at 12's, then 14's, 16's, 18's and finally 20/1 at the off.
My new clever theory demanded I back Rowe's animal, and the rest is down to the punting gods.
I was right in that Harry Whittingham's horse run just as badly as his earlier runner. The horse with form, Lord Bryan from the Bowen yard, flattered to deceive as I had anticipated. 
As for Rowe's nag, it was going ok at half way before dropping out tamely on the final bend.
The winner you will have guessed by now, was Mickieblueeyes, trained by Di Grissell, and in an agonising twist of fate, ridden by Marc Goldstein (son of the legendary iron man Ray himself). The price 20/1 - it could have been caviar but instead it's fish fingers for dinner tonight. If it had won I meant even have purchased a Pride of Plumpton paving stone there and then.
To add salt into the wound the dulcet tone of the PA announcer said goodbye to us all as we left the course, especially "those members of Sussex County Cricket Club who had enjoyed free admission on production of their membership card". I, as a life long member of the club, had known nothing of this and had therefore paid £16 to get in.
Oh well to Fontwell on Thursday to make amends - although I may give the bumper a swerve!

*So called not because he ran triathlons but because of his bravery round the southern tracks. Ray had so many injuries that he was rumoured to be made of iron by the time he retired.